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U.S. Regional Trends & Projections

Regional Forest Vulnerability Assessments

Utilizing science synthesis and expert input, the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS) has produced a series of ecoregional vulnerability assessments that describe “future changes in climate and the potential effects on the forest ecosystems specific to that particular region.”

Central Hardwoods (2014)

Northern Minnesota (2014)

Northern Lower Michigan/Eastern Upper Michigan (2014)

Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan (2014)

Northern Wisconsin (2011)

Central Appalachians (2015)

New England (2018)

Mid-Atlantic (2018)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Climate Information

NOAA released a set of regional analyses of climate trends and projections in January of 2013 in support of the pending revision of the U.S. National Climate Assessment. These reports are valuable in that they use a consistent format for all of the regions in the continental U.S., making it easy to compare trends and projections between regions. The reports also employ consistent methods to identify and depict statistically significant trends, again making it easy to make comparisons between regions.

Technical Reports

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is a congressionally mandated report about the impacts of climate change, which is provided by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to Congress every four years. The most recent NCA was published in two volumes in 2017 and 2018.

Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume I: Climate Science Special Report

2017

NCA Volume I provides an assessment and analysis of the physical science, including trends and projections in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and other variables for the U.S.

Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States

2018

NCA Volume II “focuses on the human welfare, societal, and environmental elements of climate change and variability” for different regions of the U.S., including projected risks and example actions.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a special report outlining the likely impacts of a global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). This includes discussion of the impacts on terrestrial ecosystems (see Chapter 3 pgs. 216-221).

Changing climate, changing forests: The impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

This report has useful information about climate impacts on Northeastern U.S. Forests.

Books

Manomet’s Climate Change & Forestry Handbook

This three-part book summarizes the science of climate change, what it means for forests, and the ways forest managers can respond and adapt to these changes. For more information, see: climatesmartnetwork.org/climate-resources/handbook/

Forest Adaptation Resources: Climate Change Tools and Approaches for Land Managers, 2nd Edition

The U.S. Forest Service, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science released a 2nd edition of their Forest Adaptation Resources document in 2016, which features a revised “menu” of adaptation strategies and additional chapters on evaluating vulnerability assessments and working in urban forests. Available online at: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760

Coordinated Website
There are also updates to the www.AdaptationWorkbook.org website. The site allows users to go through the Workbook in an interactive, self-guided process and generate a customized adaptation plan.

Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Management Options: A Guide for Natural Resource Managers in Southern Forest Ecosystems

New guide for natural resource managers in southern forest ecosystems

The U.S. Forest Service published a comprehensive guide to help natural resource managers in the South develop options for managing southern forest ecosystems in the face of climate change. It culminates a multi-year initiative by U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station (SRS) scientists and collaborators from the National Forest System, universities, and other federal agencies.

The publication focuses on potential climate change impacts on wildfire, insects, diseases and invasives, and how these changes could affect important values of southern forests such as timber and fiber, water quality and quantity, species and habitats, and recreation. Additional topics include forest carbon sequestration, future vulnerability to biological threats, and migration of native tree populations due to climate change.

Click here to download Manomet’s one-page summary of this book.

Climate & Forestry Web Links

Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options

This site includes a literature explorer that supports searching the scientific literature on climate change and forestry by region or by factors such as invasive species, forest health and water resources.

Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center

The Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center provides both assessment of existing threats to eastern forests and extensive future climate forecasting.

Natural Resources Canada Climate Change Page

The NRC climate change page includes links to information on several issues associated with climate change and forests in Canada including carbon accounting, impacts, mitigation and adaptation.

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